The Jaker

Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.


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Tuesday, November 09, 2004
2008
Here's the article people are talking about today - where apparently Kerry hinted over the weekend that he may run again. I think, as long as the party does indeed embrace some kind of fundamental change in attitude or vision, that Kerry will wisely see that his nomination would be seen as resisting that wind of change, and JFK will choose not to run again in 08.

Howard Dean, if he doesn't get/take the head of DNC job, might well run again, and depending on how the party's change manifests itself, he could be in the running again, though I doubt would emerge with the nomination.

A friend of mine (who neglects his blog) thinks the ticket should be Richardson/Obama. It's a good one, though Richardson would need to REALLY raise his national profile over the next couple years. We cannot have another situation where voters say they don't know the guy well enough.

My rundown of the candidates is as follows:
The front-runners
Clinton - primary front-runner just b/c of recognition. Obviously polarizing, but if she can get some good press for doing something moderate in the Senate, she could cruise
Edwards - needs to find something to do in the next 4 that sees him gain foreign policy experience, but as the Slate article said, he's right up there with Clinton if he can stay on TV

The 2nd tier
Evan Bayh - needs to raise national profile, but he's the perfect demographic
Tom Vilsack - same as Bayh, but not as pretty
Ed Rendell - not sure he's likeable enough
Howard Dean - can he recover? will he turn down the DNC?
Bill Richardson - positive guy, well-liked by Hispanics.

The long shots
Russ Feingold - well-liked, and a good liberal. A good voice for us. I'd love to see it
Jeff Bigamon - NM senator, Harvard/Stanford. But nobody's heard of him
Ben Nelson - freshman NE senator. Maybe VP?
Harold Ford - The Barack Obama of 4 yrs ago. Rep from TN. If not Obama, I think he's got a good shot at being the first black VP.
Rod Blagojevich - Gov IL. Could we elect a guy named that?
Mark Warner - Gov of VA. I think he'll be one of the 5 finalists for Prez if he runs.
Dick Durban - Sen IL. A great liberal, but can he parlay minority whip into a prez run?
Chuck Schumer - probably will run for NY gov in 2006.
Joe Biden - too old. 2004 was his year if he wanted it.
Wes Clark - probably won't run.
Al Gore - probably won't run.

The wild ideas / Long-range candidates
Wes Boyd - founder MoveOn.org
Gavin Newsome - SF mayor
Cory Booker - Newark city councilman
Barack Obama
Harold Ford
Gifford Miller - NYC city council speaker
Elliot Spitzer

posted by CB @ 11:59 AM  
4 Comments:
  • At 1:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Don't worry, the friend of yours is just waiting for another friend of his to helpfully redesign his blog so that it inspires your friend to contribute to the web more regularly.

    Facts:

    Kerry can't run again.

    Dean should be DNC chairman.

    Senators cannot be elected president, unless they're running against another senator, I guess. But again, that hasn't happened in at least 34 years.

    Richardson can easily heighten his profile over the next four years. He's been a Congressman, a governor, a member of a cabinet, and represents an ethnicity and a geography that could appeal to a broad swath who don't necessarily feel attached to Democrats.

    I agree that it's too early for Obama; I'd like him to spend a term in the Senate and then do a couple of terms in Illinois before he runs for president. It's all about the executive experience.

    I like Rendell or Bayh for VP, more realistically. Perhaps Vilsack.

    In terms of Blagojevich, where is the stressed syllable in the name? Look at all the presidents — who was the last one who had a last name with a stressed syllable other than the first one? BUSH. CLIN-ton. BUSH. REA-gan. CAR-ter. FORD. NIX-on. JOHN-son. KEN-ne-dy. EIS-en-how-er. TRU-man. ROO-se-velt. You have to go back to mc-KIN-ley. Zoiks. Bad news for ku-CIN-ich, certainly.

     
  • At 1:53 PM, Blogger Jessica said…

    Hillary seems to be the one everyone is talking about, and I think she is great, but I don't know if she can win because she is so polarizing. I don't know if she is that moderating, uniting candidate that the Dems need.

    Edwards... excuse my ignorance, but why does everyone say he is such a front runner? What has he done? I get the impression that he seems to be pretty junior politically. Possibly the lack of experience could hurt? He definitely has that charistmatic, Southern thing going a la Bill Clinton, but I doubt he could sway the much needed Southern Democratic vote, as he failed to do so on the ticket this time, and his own N. Carolina didn't even vote for him.

     
  • At 2:16 PM, Blogger CB said…

    Josh -
    I know the Senator vs. Governor argument, but I don't buy it. More people voted for a senator than a governor in 2000. A senator came within 100,000 votes of the presidency in 2004. I think the recent history is coincidental. I actually do think that a governorship is better training for the presidency than the Senate, but I don't think voters really care about that. From a political perspective, I see no reason why a senator can't win. And we definitely should not make a rule for who to nominate just because of the last 10 elections.

    Jess -
    If you haven't already, read this article: http://www.slate.com/id/2109128/. It lays out the argument for Edwards, which basically summarizes as: he's the one guy who seems to have a grasp on the morality-based vision, with his "Two Americas" speech. He talks about the moral injustices of racism, unequal education, unequal healthcare, etc. If he can tune that up a bit, that could very well be the new Dem platform.

     
  • At 7:15 PM, Blogger Jessica said…

    i will check out the article, colin. thanks.

    also, in regards to the comment above, why can't Kerry run again? it can't be some sort of technical reason.

    and what senator came within 100,000 votes to winning the presidency this election? Kerry lost by 3 million popular votes, i thought.

     
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