Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Thursday, August 04, 2011
Obama will be a 2 term President, but the 2nd term won't start in 2012
That's what I'm truly starting to believe, based on current facts. Obama will lose in 2012 (to Mitt Romney or Rick Perry), because of a terrible economy. He'll find some very productive Clinton-style community-fortifying immediate post-presidency career. In 2016 the Dems will turn to someone like Gov Cuomo or Cory Booker to run against the incumbent.
But during one of the three presidential elections in the 2020s, when Obama is in his early to mid 60s, he will be "drafted" back to lead the Dem ticket, and will win a 2nd presidential term.
Because this is how this blog started, here's my December 2010 take on who's most likely to win the GOP Nomination for President (from most likely to lease likely):
John Thune Haley Barbour X Marco Rubio X Chris Christie X Tim Pawlenty Mitt Romney Mike Huckabee David Petraeus X Sarah Palin Newt Gingrich Mitch Daniels George Pataki Jeb Bush X Rudy Giuliani Bobby Jindal X
Yes, I recognize that this is easy for me to say: I have my job and my house. I realize that millions of people are out of work, facing agonizing choices of what bills to pay, losing their homes. And I think we should help those people by providing direct assistance in the forms of longer-lasting unemployment insurance, universal health insurance, education grants, and mortgage revalautions.
What I have a problem with are the measures aimed at increasing spending. American consumer spending was unsustainably high. Yes it's tempting to try to push it back up to that high to get rid of the temporary pain, but that is itself only a temporary solution. Instead we need to reset to sustainable consumption rates, and I think to some degree the recession is helping accomplish that.
While I'm on the subject (and because who knows when my next post might be), we could really improve things by taxing consumption and use of public goods (carbon tax, gas tax, etc.) instead of income the way we do now. The conversion should be revenue neutral, to ensure that the tax system remains progressive (the less money you have, the greater percentage you spend on consumption, gas, etc.). Our tax system could be set up to much better incentivize the behaviors that are favorable to the public.
For more on the unsustainability of US consumer spending, I recommend the 30-minute movie I.O.U.S.A you can watch free here: http://www.iousathemovie.com/
This Andrew Sullivan paragraph from 2007 really hits home today.
Consider this hypothetical. It’s November 2008. A young Pakistani Muslim is watching television and sees that this man—Barack Hussein Obama—is the new face of America. In one simple image, America’s soft power has been ratcheted up not a notch, but a logarithm. A brown-skinned man whose father was an African, who grew up in Indonesia and Hawaii, who attended a majority-Muslim school as a boy, is now the alleged enemy. If you wanted the crudest but most effective weapon against the demonization of America that fuels Islamist ideology, Obama’s face gets close. It proves them wrong about what America is in ways no words can.