The Jaker

Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.


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Friday, August 26, 2005
Friday Presidential Odds Update
GOP
- George Allen is a favorite of Conservatives. The thinking seems to be coalescing around McCain going out in front very early, but hard right-wingers unifying around a more traditional conservative. Allen could definitely be that guy. As such, I'm shifting around the Top 4 Republicans a bit. Allen moves into the second spot, jumping ahead of Hagel and Frist.
- This is really interesting. Chuch Hagel, who I like about as much as I can a Republican, might consider an Independent bid, because he thinks he couldn't beat McCain in the primary. It almost should be the other way around... McCain is the more likely Independent here. But Hagel has said some courageous things, especially in his fervent criticisms of the handling of Iraq.
- I've also slimmed down the Republican list a bit, removing people who clearly don't have a chance (Rick Santorum, Bill O'Reilly, Dan Quayle).


Dems
- I'm moving Evan Bayh up into the 3rd spot, ahead of Wes Clark. While Clark has significant grass roots support, he's stayed out of the news and doesn't appear to be raising money. Bayh, on the other hand, is running full steam ahead, showing up in Iowa and New Hampshire all the time.
- Moving Bill Bradley from 25:1 to 50:1. He was mostly there reflecting an unlikely hope of mine. He's one of my favorite Democrats by far, and I'd support him in a second if he got in.
posted by CB @ 10:25 AM  
2 Comments:
  • At 3:13 PM, Blogger David said…

    Great stuff. First time visitor, but I plan on returning.

    As a native Pennsylvanian, I love Rendell as a dark horse (though almost certainly for VP).

     
  • At 3:15 PM, Blogger David said…

    Whoops... just noticed you bumped Santorum out of your list. Why?

    I mean, you know and I know that he is nutty as a fruitcake... but look at the state of the country right now. As far to the right as he is, why wouldn't he have a shot at the Presidency?

     
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