Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Monday, February 13, 2006
2008 Presidential Odds Update
With 2006 now 1/12 over, the 2008 race will increasingly come into better focus. The first primaries are just about 2 years from now, meaning the running will start in earnest this time next year, and that 2006 will really help identify who has the potential to raise the big money needed to sustain the pace in 2007 and 2008.
Here are the latest implications:
GOP: - The three Republicans running for House majority leader will all become bigger on the national stage. John Boehner won, beating Roy Blunt and John Shaddegg. All three are 56, and I'm sure would all love to run for president some day. Boehner is indeed the most presidential of the group, and comes from bellweather Ohio which is a great asset in a Pres race. But 2008 is too early for him, especially now that he's won a new post. If the Dems win in 2008, look for Boehner to throw his hat in the ring in 2012. - Chuck Hagel continues to be critical of the White House, which both helps and hurts his chances in 2008. And he scored a lead article in the NYT Magazine. I haven't read it yet, but will write up a summary when I do. Hagel is my favorite among the Republicans (which isn't saying much). I would be thrilled if he got the GOP nomination. - Haley Barbour said he wasn't running for President, but was going to run for re-election as Governor in 2007. So I'm dropping his odds from 19:1 to 40:1.