Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Thursday, October 12, 2006
2008 President Nomination Odds Update
Democrats Hillary Clinton 5:3. Though Warner's pullout perhaps helps Hillary a little, I think it mostly just changes the race to be the main alternative. So no change for Hill. Mark Warner DROPPED OUT. What I had drafted a couple days ago to post here was "Haven't heard much lately. Is he lining things up behind the scenes?" Answer: No. Warner quit the race today (or decided not to join it). It's true - Presidential campaigns are awful on a family, and when you're comfortable financially it's understandable that the motivations are reduced. This really shakes up the race, as most people, bloggers included, were planning on Warner being the likeable alternative to Hillary. See implications below John Edwards 4:1. Edwards is the primary beneficiary of Warner's exit. He'd been gaining ground anyway, and his sunny optimism and ability to come from "outside" the current Washington sphere while also possessing government experience (just like Warner) now sets him up to be a major alternative. Question is whether he can gain gravitas. Al Gore 5:1. Al benefits similarly to Edwards, though he's a lot more iffy. He too has been somewhat quiet lately, and his actions soon after November will be telling. Barack Obama 9:1. I'm moving Obama up big time. I really think he's running. From 14:1 to 9:1. And if he confirms it, he'll go to something like 4:1. Will Warner's big donors and party strategists move to him now, as the next most exciting thing? Evan Bayh 10:1. Bill Richardson 10:1. Richardson moves up, from 11:1 to 10:1. The country seems to love governors, and with Warner out of the way, Richardson is the best situated Dem with governor experience. Russ Feingold 12:1. Warner had attracted some bloggers, namely Jerome Armstrong of myDD. Now that he's out, Feingold becomes the favorite of the bloggers. Moving up from 13:1 to 12:1. John Kerry 14:1. I'm keeping Kerry steady, though he might benefit too, because he looks a little like Warner. Wes Clark 14:1. Bloggers could go this direction too. From 15 to 14. Joe Biden 16:1. Bumping up from 17 to 16. Tom Daschle 22:1. Tom Vilsack 28:1 Chris Dodd 35:1. Bill Bradley 48:1 Brian Schweitzer 60:1 Bill Nelson 65:1 Howard Dean 85:1 Janet Napolitano 100:1
Republicans John McCain 2:1 Rudy Giuliani 5:1. Mitt Romney 9:1 George Pataki 16:1 George Allen 16:1 Chuck Hagel 17:1. Bill Frist 17:1. Condoleezza Rice 18:1 Mike Huckabee 20:1 Sam Brownback 20:1 Jeb Bush 24:1 Colin Powell 35:1 Tom Ridge 35:1 Bill Owens 40:1 Haley Barbour 40:1 Dick Cheney 125:1 Christie Todd Whitman 150:1