Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Monday, May 28, 2007
Bush's Iraq will be a decade long threat to the world
It seems increasingly clear to me, especially after reading this article, that the main accomplishment we will remember of Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld is the establishment of an anarchic home base for worldwide terror that will last for probably a decade or more.
We've given them a most comfortable home. There's no stable government with policing power, and was certainly never a chance for a stable DEMOCRATIC government. So now we are left with having given them a haven, whether we stay there or not - but probably more so if not - to export destruction.
And so I am increasingly in awe of the people who are willing to accept Bush's mistake and agree to put themselves in danger over there so we aren't in more danger over here. It's amazing when you think about it. We've now had more killed in Iraq than on 9/11, and many of them volunteered to be at risk. Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld should live the rest of their lives praying for the forgiveness of these volunteers' families.
Okay everyone, I will accede to your request and add Ron Paul to the rankings. The unfortunate fact about American politics is that people with thoughtful, nuanced opinions on the state of America's position in the world don't have a forum to lay them out comprehensively. So Ron Paul is given 90 seconds in a debate and comes off as a whacko, and Giuliani gets a home-run soundbite that the base eats up (despite the fact that Paul's point was totally legitimate).
So I'll add Ron Paul to the odds with a 36:1 position, while wishing we had a process in which someone like him could be much much higher.
I haven't updated my odds in forever, and my opinion has changed significantly over the last month or two. Here's my updated odds:
Democrats Hillary Clinton 3:1. I still think she's the frontrunner, as long as articles like the recent Joe Klein in TIME (summary: Hillary's the most capable candidate, especially when it comes to foreign/military policy). Barack Obama 3:1.. Has the momentum slowed just a tad? Obama needs to come out with some innovative plans soon to back up the hype that he's going to lead us in a new direction. John Edwards 5:1 . I continue to love the role Edwards is playing in this race - focusing on global warming, healthcare, widening income disparities... all in a very frank manner. Unfortunately his time at Fortress isn't helping his credibility, and he remains something of a lightweight. Al Gore 8:1 . I rate the likelihood of Gore entering lower today than I did a few months ago, hence I'm dropping him from 7:1 to 8:1. Nothing the other three have done have led to a mass draft Gore movement. Bill Richardson 12:1 Despite the qualifications, he is not good on the stump, and he's playing too many games. He's not the right guy for the moment. Dropping from 9:1 to 12:1 Wes Clark 20:1 This isn't happening. 18:1 to 20:1 Chris Dodd 22:1 From 30:1 to 22:1. The theory: he may get credit 6 months from now for being the first candidate to support a carbon tax, which is a very sensible policy that I think a mass movement might get behind very soon. Joe Biden 25:1 Not going anywhere. Dennis Kucinich 30:1
Republicans Mitt Romney 7:2 Moving Mitt up from 4:1 to 7:2. He's doing well in debates, and is raising tons. I still think the Mormon thing is a problem - see Jacob Weissberg's article about how he thinks it's a legitimate question when a candidate follows a religion instituted by a "fraud". Rudy Giuliani 4:1 My view has changed most stronly on Giuliani. I'm moving him from 7:1 to 4:1. He's is kicking ass in debates, and may just be able to pull off the amazing feat of convincing enough Republicans that abortion isn't the most important issue facing the U.S. He still faces other problems related to personality, but he's very tactical. John McCain 5:1 I'm dropping McCain from 4:1 to 5:1. I feel like he's floundering. I'm not sure how he resurrects it. Only if the mormon issue and abortion issues become the main thing people care about. Fred Thompson 6:1. I don't think this goes far. I think he's the Wes Clark of 2008. But I may be wrong. Newt Gingrich 11:1 Sam Brownback 14:1 Mike Huckabee 15:1. Doesn't believe in evolution? I don't think that helps, even in the Republican primary. Chuck Hagel 17:1 . More likely as independent, but who knows. Condoleezza Rice 25:1 Tommy Thompson 35:1 Duncan Hunter 100:1