Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Monday, October 25, 2004
Where is the race?
While my belief, barring any major surprises yet to come, will continue to be that all polls are under-representing sentiment on Kerry and that he'll win by 5-8 pts on Tuesday, it's still interesting to see where the race is today. On that front, a current state of affairs:
Electoral Vote Predictor has swung towards Bush over the weekend. With the exception of Colorado, this map seems like basically a worst-case scenario for Kerry. But I don't believe the input here that Ohio is currently Bush +5, given that it was Kerry +6 in another poll on Saturday. Also not sure I believe Florida and Wisconsin either.
Slate maintains a tiny Bush victory (270 needed to win). But not sure they've updated that this morning.
Race 2004 however has Kerry with 300 EVs as of right now.
So, as you can see, from a horse-race polling perspective it's anyone's game. I truly believe if the polls are somewhat split like this that Kerry will see a huge rush of undecideds breaking his way thanks to the Incumbent Rule, and that the Dem base is more fired up that the GOP base, no matter what Ken Mehlman says.