The Jaker

Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.


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Monday, November 01, 2004
Here's the only thing I'm worried about
Wisconsin. I firmly believe my prediction below. It's optimistic, but I think voters will be too. However, if I'm wrong, it will be a very close election, and it may come down to Wisonsin. Here's the scenario:

Solid and leaner states right now give Bush 218, Kerry 225. If Bush wins CO, NM, IA, and somehow pulls out OH; and Kerry wins PA, FL, MI.... then it comes down to Wisconsin. If Bush were to win Wisconsin, guess what we'd have: 269 - 269. Which is bad news - the House of Reps would select Bush president.

So let's not let it happen. Talk to your friends/relatives/acquaintances in any of those states and tell them to get their friends/relatives/acquaintances out to vote.

I'm confident Kerry will win. All the sentiment is flowing his direction, as we thought it would close to the election. But we've all got to do our part to make it happen.

posted by CB @ 11:09 AM  
2 Comments:
  • At 3:34 PM, Blogger Jessica said…

    I think a 269-269 tie is very statistically improbable, but I agree with you that Wisconsin is a concern. According to the latest CNN poll, it has solid and leader states that could be called as Bush 227, Kerry 242.

    My prediction is that I think that Kerry will take Pennslyvania and Ohio, but I think Bush will get Florida. But even then, Bush could win if he got Wisconsin (10), Iowa (7), and Minn. (10). I think hopefully Wisconsin will come through though.

     
  • At 3:38 PM, Blogger CB said…

    Jess,
    FoxNews (!) gives Kerry a 5-pt lead in Florida in its last poll. And if you watch the tv today, the lines to vote in Broward County (a big Dem county) is just ridiculous - literally 1-2 hrs wait to vote, and people are staying in line. This is so encouraging. All signs point to HUGE turnout in Florida - and it makes sense. Democrats in Florida feel more jipped than any of us. I STRONGLY feel that Kerry will win Florida.

     
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