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| Wednesday, November 03, 2004 |
| Understanding |
I'm trying to stay unemotional about this. Here are the major suprises/issues that I see from last night:
1) Where was the turnout? Where were the legions of new registered voters? 106 million people voted in 2000, and with population growth the same percentage turnout would have meant 114 million in 2004. Yet the popular vote tally is currently right at that 113-114 million. So where were all these new people energized by the most important election of their lifetime? They didn't show up. Predominantly the young people. And that killed Kerry.
2) Democrats weren't as solid on Kerry as Republicans were on Bush. It looks like Dems went 89-10 for Kerry, but Reps went 93-7 for Bush. Is that a reflection on the candidate? The war? I don't know.
3) Seniors went 6 pts better for Bush in 2004 than 2000. I don't understand that. I guess they really think the Prescription Drug Benefit that passed is helpful to them.
4) As Bob Novak said, this country is conservative and getting more so. Democrats have to accept that now. Our last president was a centrist. Democrats will be the underdogs for the forseeable future, decades probably, unless dramatic demographic shifts occur. We're always going to be fighting uphill in huge parts of the country.
5) What's up with exit polls? They forecasted Kerry wins in Florida and Ohio. Why are they such bad predictors? Did they impact the turnout at all - people staying home because they thought it was locked up. Don't think so, but who knows.
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posted by CB @ 9:15 AM   |
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