The Jaker

Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.

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Friday, February 25, 2005
Friday Prez Odds Update
A bunch of developments this week, the main one being a poll of conservative activists at CPAC (Conservative PAC), as Noted:

In case you missed it, here are the results from the 2005 CPAC poll of
conservative activists conducted by Fabrizio McLaughlin. N=641.
One question asked attendees who they thought would be the Democratic nominee in 2008:
68% Clinton
6% Edwards
5% Richardson
4% Warner
3% Bayh
2% Kerry
2% Clark
1% Vilsack
1% Feingold

Another question asked who participants thought would be the Republican nominee in 2008.
19% Giuliani
18% Rice
11% Allen, Frist, McCain
4% Owens, Romney, Santorum
5% Gingrich
2% Pataki
1% Hagel, Huckabee, Pawlenty, Santorum
0% Barbour
** = figures provided to ABC News by CPAC.

Some of these results are surprising to me: on the Dems side I can't believe they think Hillary is that likely (they're Republicans, so perhaps a lot of wishful thinking because they think they can beat her easily). Also surprising is Gore's absence - I can't be the only one who thinks this can happen, can I? On the GOP side, I'm shocked at how high Rice is and how low Hagel is.

Accordingly, though I don't put too much stock in this poll, I'm making a few adjustments:

Richardson: up from 6:1 to 11:2
Rice: up from 22:1 to 13:1
Giuliani: up from 11:2 to 5:1
Hagel: down slightly from 4:1 to 9:2
McCain: down from 5:2 to 4:1

Also, Joe Biden is running. At least that's my interpretation of what he said to the SF Chronicle. I think I have him correctly pegged right now, so no change.
posted by CB @ 10:16 AM  
  • At 10:26 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Great site! Thought you would be interested in
    He'll be rising in the rankings over the summer (guaranteed).

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