Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Friday, February 25, 2005
Friday Prez Odds Update
A bunch of developments this week, the main one being a poll of conservative activists at CPAC (Conservative PAC), as Noted:
In case you missed it, here are the results from the 2005 CPAC poll of conservative activists conducted by Fabrizio McLaughlin. N=641. One question asked attendees who they thought would be the Democratic nominee in 2008: 68% Clinton 6% Edwards 5% Richardson 4% Warner 3% Bayh 2% Kerry 2% Clark 1% Vilsack 1% Feingold
Another question asked who participants thought would be the Republican nominee in 2008. 19% Giuliani 18% Rice 11% Allen, Frist, McCain 4% Owens, Romney, Santorum 5% Gingrich 2% Pataki 1% Hagel, Huckabee, Pawlenty, Santorum 0% Barbour ** = figures provided to ABC News by CPAC.
Some of these results are surprising to me: on the Dems side I can't believe they think Hillary is that likely (they're Republicans, so perhaps a lot of wishful thinking because they think they can beat her easily). Also surprising is Gore's absence - I can't be the only one who thinks this can happen, can I? On the GOP side, I'm shocked at how high Rice is and how low Hagel is.
Accordingly, though I don't put too much stock in this poll, I'm making a few adjustments:
Richardson: up from 6:1 to 11:2 Rice: up from 22:1 to 13:1 Giuliani: up from 11:2 to 5:1 Hagel: down slightly from 4:1 to 9:2 McCain: down from 5:2 to 4:1
Also, Joe Biden is running. At least that's my interpretation of what he said to the SF Chronicle. I think I have him correctly pegged right now, so no change.