Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Friday, November 25, 2005
2008 Presidential Odds Update
Democrats: - VA-Gov Mark Warner is clearly the "it" guy in the race at the moment. Predictably, the Kaine victory gave him a boost, and he rode the wave into New Hampshire last weekend, receiving positive reviews. It's still a little on the surface, after all this guy's total political record is one term as governor. But his business background does remind me of someone from Texas, except for the fact that Warner was far more successful. He's had good odds from the beginning. I think 7:1 is about appropriate at the moment. - John Edwards made news last week by saying "I was wrong" to vote for the Iraq war resolution. Clearly he's trying to establish his position on Iraq well ahead of the 2007/2008 maelstrom. He's positioning himself to the left of Hillary, hopefully capturing the anti-war progressive vote that went so heavily to Dean in 2004. Edwards is also probably trying to outflank Russ Feingold, who will be trying to capture that same anti-Hillary group. So I think this is smart of JE, but I'm not going to change his odds for now. He's where he should be. - Some good press on Bill Richardson, who has the qualifications, but not yet the national following, to be a serious contender in a non-Hillary-cakewalk race. However, he also just admitted that his official bio for the last 25 years misleadingly said he was drafted by a major league baseball team, which wasn't true. Richardson is, I think, correctly positioned behind Warner and Bayh as the 3rd 'newcomer' to the presidential race. But could I envision a scenario where things go his way? Absolutely. - CT Senator Chris Dodd enters the race at 30:1.