|
| Friday, January 20, 2006 |
| Friday Presidential Odds Update |
Democrats:
- Some people are joining me on the Al Gore bandwagon. For those of you new to the rankings, I debuted them with Al Gore atop the Democratic list. I've moved him down over the last year as he has denied any interest in running again. But I've kept him fairly high, because I think this could be an excellent strategy whereby he allows himself to be "drafted" into the race. Arianna Huffington thinks it will be Al vs. Hillary. Throw Mark Warner and John Edwards in that mix, and I think that's your likely final four. In light of his recent speech, I'm knocking Gore up from 11:1 to 10:1.
Republicans:
- Trying to figure out Condi Rice's spot in my rankings has consistently befuddled me. Yes, she would jump to the top 2 or 3 if she was running... she has what a lot of people think is necessary in the first woman President: foreign experience and a non-nonsense attitude. But she has been SOOO insistent that she is not AT ALL interested in running. And she's not a politician, so she really shouldn't yet have mastered the obfuscation routine. Laura Bush says she'd be a good President (would she really just say that?). And now Dick Morris has a book out called Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race. So I'm upping Condi from 25:1 to 18:1.
- John McCain is making some inroads with his party's right wing, which is exactly the constituency he needs to court to win the nomination. Accordingly, I'm upping him from 7:2 to 3:1. |
posted by CB @ 10:39 AM   |
|
| 5 Comments: |
-
I think that your odds are rather accurate, though I wonder whether most pundits have taken into account that Vilsack could very well win Iowa, thus catapulting him to a very good showing. Warner seemingly has the most net activists right now, and I'm watching him closely. Clark seems to be the logical choice in a post-9/11 age, and he is rather popular in many Democratic circles. We'll see what happens.
http://otherspaces.blogspot.com/
-
We disagree, Michal.
Why do I believe in Gore? Take the article in last week's Economist, saying he's totally changed his public persona, etc. etc. Of course Hillary's the frontrunner, but if Gore declares, Richardson can go back to Taos.
McCain has only grown in popularity since 2000, when he BEAT George Bush in New Hampshire. This time people will follow through.
-
Where is Ron Paul? I know his odds are not good but they are better than alot of people listed here.
-
These odds are a bit different than that of British odds makers who favor Hillary much more over Obama and Giuliani considerably more than Romney. Still, most of them look about what I would guess.
-
I think the odds say Hillary, but the odds said Yankees would finsih Boston up 3-0. Obama will steal this election. If you can take 3/1 or better its a good bet. He has something that a president needs, and that is balls and brains. He has no hidden motives, only to stop terrorism. I am not only voting for this man but I am contributing to his campaign and making a large wager on Obama.
|
| |
| << Home |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Recent Posts |
|
| Archives |
|
| Contact Me |
| Email me |
| Template by |
 |
|
|
I think that your odds are rather accurate, though I wonder whether most pundits have taken into account that Vilsack could very well win Iowa, thus catapulting him to a very good showing. Warner seemingly has the most net activists right now, and I'm watching him closely. Clark seems to be the logical choice in a post-9/11 age, and he is rather popular in many Democratic circles. We'll see what happens.
http://otherspaces.blogspot.com/