The Jaker

Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.

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Friday, January 20, 2006
Friday Presidential Odds Update
- Some people are joining me on the Al Gore bandwagon. For those of you new to the rankings, I debuted them with Al Gore atop the Democratic list. I've moved him down over the last year as he has denied any interest in running again. But I've kept him fairly high, because I think this could be an excellent strategy whereby he allows himself to be "drafted" into the race. Arianna Huffington thinks it will be Al vs. Hillary. Throw Mark Warner and John Edwards in that mix, and I think that's your likely final four. In light of his recent speech, I'm knocking Gore up from 11:1 to 10:1.

- Trying to figure out Condi Rice's spot in my rankings has consistently befuddled me. Yes, she would jump to the top 2 or 3 if she was running... she has what a lot of people think is necessary in the first woman President: foreign experience and a non-nonsense attitude. But she has been SOOO insistent that she is not AT ALL interested in running. And she's not a politician, so she really shouldn't yet have mastered the obfuscation routine. Laura Bush says she'd be a good President (would she really just say that?). And now Dick Morris has a book out called Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race. So I'm upping Condi from 25:1 to 18:1.
- John McCain is making some inroads with his party's right wing, which is exactly the constituency he needs to court to win the nomination. Accordingly, I'm upping him from 7:2 to 3:1.
posted by CB @ 10:39 AM  
  • At 11:26 PM, Blogger Michael Martin said…

    I think that your odds are rather accurate, though I wonder whether most pundits have taken into account that Vilsack could very well win Iowa, thus catapulting him to a very good showing. Warner seemingly has the most net activists right now, and I'm watching him closely. Clark seems to be the logical choice in a post-9/11 age, and he is rather popular in many Democratic circles. We'll see what happens.

  • At 8:22 PM, Blogger Michal Zapendowski said…

    These odds are all wrong. How can you possibly believe in a Gore resurrection? I'm assuming you must have voted for Gore in 2000, but come on man... let it go...

    If anyone even stands a chance of unseating Hillary at the Dem Convention, it's Richardson, who is the hispanic popular governor of a swing state in a region where the hispanic/swing vote is of *extreme* importance to the Dems, and who is chairman of the democratic governor's association, which was the same post Clinton ran from in 1992. Nonetheless, I think it's more likely he'll be Hillary's running mate.

    And on the Republican side, McCain stands absolutely no chance and you've got him at the top place. McCain is the Dean of the Right - popular on the net, but with no chance of winning the primary. The Christian Right already scuttled his campaign once (in 2000), doing it again would be even easier. Especially with Giuliani in the race, another "moderate" (i.e. foam-still-inside-mouth) Republican who scores very highly in the nebulous qualities of presidentability, and beats Hillary solidly in head-to-head matchups.

    I would nonetheless place my bet for the GOP either on Allen or on Brownback, because both are right-wing nuts and therefore have a much better chance of winning the GOP nomination. Brownback could potentially prove to be the dark horse of his party's race - leading a Christian fundamentalist charge for the White House. I would give Allen higher overall chances, however - he seems to be who the GOP washington elite is coalescing around at this point.

  • At 9:29 AM, Blogger CB said…

    We disagree, Michal.

    Why do I believe in Gore? Take the article in last week's Economist, saying he's totally changed his public persona, etc. etc. Of course Hillary's the frontrunner, but if Gore declares, Richardson can go back to Taos.

    McCain has only grown in popularity since 2000, when he BEAT George Bush in New Hampshire. This time people will follow through.

  • At 11:26 PM, Blogger Travis Blog said…

    Where is Ron Paul? I know his odds are not good but they are better than alot of people listed here.

  • At 9:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    These odds are a bit different than that of British odds makers who favor Hillary much more over Obama and Giuliani considerably more than Romney. Still, most of them look about what I would guess.

  • At 1:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    I think the odds say Hillary, but the odds said Yankees would finsih Boston up 3-0. Obama will steal this election. If you can take 3/1 or better its a good bet. He has something that a president needs, and that is balls and brains. He has no hidden motives, only to stop terrorism. I am not only voting for this man but I am contributing to his campaign and making a large wager on Obama.

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