Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Thursday, May 17, 2007
Presidential Odds Update!
I haven't updated my odds in forever, and my opinion has changed significantly over the last month or two. Here's my updated odds:
Democrats Hillary Clinton 3:1. I still think she's the frontrunner, as long as articles like the recent Joe Klein in TIME (summary: Hillary's the most capable candidate, especially when it comes to foreign/military policy). Barack Obama 3:1.. Has the momentum slowed just a tad? Obama needs to come out with some innovative plans soon to back up the hype that he's going to lead us in a new direction. John Edwards 5:1 . I continue to love the role Edwards is playing in this race - focusing on global warming, healthcare, widening income disparities... all in a very frank manner. Unfortunately his time at Fortress isn't helping his credibility, and he remains something of a lightweight. Al Gore 8:1 . I rate the likelihood of Gore entering lower today than I did a few months ago, hence I'm dropping him from 7:1 to 8:1. Nothing the other three have done have led to a mass draft Gore movement. Bill Richardson 12:1 Despite the qualifications, he is not good on the stump, and he's playing too many games. He's not the right guy for the moment. Dropping from 9:1 to 12:1 Wes Clark 20:1 This isn't happening. 18:1 to 20:1 Chris Dodd 22:1 From 30:1 to 22:1. The theory: he may get credit 6 months from now for being the first candidate to support a carbon tax, which is a very sensible policy that I think a mass movement might get behind very soon. Joe Biden 25:1 Not going anywhere. Dennis Kucinich 30:1
Republicans Mitt Romney 7:2 Moving Mitt up from 4:1 to 7:2. He's doing well in debates, and is raising tons. I still think the Mormon thing is a problem - see Jacob Weissberg's article about how he thinks it's a legitimate question when a candidate follows a religion instituted by a "fraud". Rudy Giuliani 4:1 My view has changed most stronly on Giuliani. I'm moving him from 7:1 to 4:1. He's is kicking ass in debates, and may just be able to pull off the amazing feat of convincing enough Republicans that abortion isn't the most important issue facing the U.S. He still faces other problems related to personality, but he's very tactical. John McCain 5:1 I'm dropping McCain from 4:1 to 5:1. I feel like he's floundering. I'm not sure how he resurrects it. Only if the mormon issue and abortion issues become the main thing people care about. Fred Thompson 6:1. I don't think this goes far. I think he's the Wes Clark of 2008. But I may be wrong. Newt Gingrich 11:1 Sam Brownback 14:1 Mike Huckabee 15:1. Doesn't believe in evolution? I don't think that helps, even in the Republican primary. Chuck Hagel 17:1 . More likely as independent, but who knows. Condoleezza Rice 25:1 Tommy Thompson 35:1 Duncan Hunter 100:1