Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Friday, June 10, 2005
Friday Prez Odds Update
A bunch of changes in the odds this week.
GOP: - John McCain has hired Mark McKinnon, the former Democrat who ran advertising for Bush in 2000 and 2004. This earns McCain a bump in the odds for 2 reasons: 1) it signals he's almost definitely running, and 2) McKinnon is clearly talented at marketing to what people are looking for in a president, and in McCain has another "regular guy" Bush-type figure to go to work on. Additionally, McKinnon's acquiescence signals that McCain is a top player in race. I'm improving his odds from 6:1to 11:2, meaning he jumps just ahead of George Allen and Bill Frist for the number two spot behind my (still speculative) poll-position guy, Chuck Hagel. I still think Republicans will be enamored with Hagel when they get to know him. - I'm taking Giuliani down from 7:1 to 8:1, reflecting how there's been very little noise from his camp on 2008 plans. If he's to run successfully (and he may not run), he needs to be courting the right wing right now, which I don't believe he's started doing. - I'm moving Arkasas governor Mike Huckabee up to 15:1 from 18:1, leapfrogging him over Tom Ridge, Sam Brownback, George Pataki, and Condi Rice. Besides Pataki (who has a slim shot), those others haven't made any indication they might run, while Huckabee has.
Dems: - Hillary has been generating good press lately. The consensus, at least for the next year or so I think, is going to be that it will be very hard for someone to beat her. As such I'm bumping her up slightly from 5:2 to 2:1. - John Kerry takes a tumble due to this week's story about his poor grades. I really think it will hurt him, since he never tried to quell the voice of those who were saying he was clearly so much smarter than Bush, who it turns out got a 1-pt better average at Yale. I'm dropping Kerry from 7:1 to 9:1, behind Mark Warner and Wes Clark.
Apparently a website called www.sportsinteraction.com also has odds on the race, but it's blocked from my work computer (no gambling allowed). Perhaps one of you can fill me in on their projections.