The Jaker

Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.

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Friday, June 10, 2005
Friday Prez Odds Update
A bunch of changes in the odds this week.

- John McCain has hired Mark McKinnon, the former Democrat who ran advertising for Bush in 2000 and 2004. This earns McCain a bump in the odds for 2 reasons: 1) it signals he's almost definitely running, and 2) McKinnon is clearly talented at marketing to what people are looking for in a president, and in McCain has another "regular guy" Bush-type figure to go to work on. Additionally, McKinnon's acquiescence signals that McCain is a top player in race. I'm improving his odds from 6:1to 11:2, meaning he jumps just ahead of George Allen and Bill Frist for the number two spot behind my (still speculative) poll-position guy, Chuck Hagel. I still think Republicans will be enamored with Hagel when they get to know him.
- I'm taking Giuliani down from 7:1 to 8:1, reflecting how there's been very little noise from his camp on 2008 plans. If he's to run successfully (and he may not run), he needs to be courting the right wing right now, which I don't believe he's started doing.
- I'm moving Arkasas governor Mike Huckabee up to 15:1 from 18:1, leapfrogging him over Tom Ridge, Sam Brownback, George Pataki, and Condi Rice. Besides Pataki (who has a slim shot), those others haven't made any indication they might run, while Huckabee has.

- Hillary has been generating good press lately. The consensus, at least for the next year or so I think, is going to be that it will be very hard for someone to beat her. As such I'm bumping her up slightly from 5:2 to 2:1.
- John Kerry takes a tumble due to this week's story about his poor grades. I really think it will hurt him, since he never tried to quell the voice of those who were saying he was clearly so much smarter than Bush, who it turns out got a 1-pt better average at Yale. I'm dropping Kerry from 7:1 to 9:1, behind Mark Warner and Wes Clark.

Apparently a website called also has odds on the race, but it's blocked from my work computer (no gambling allowed). Perhaps one of you can fill me in on their projections.
posted by CB @ 10:22 AM  
  • At 10:42 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    They only have the Democrats, and it seems based almost solely on name recognition (instead of listing odds, they list 'price'):

    Hillary Clinton: 2.25
    John Edwards: 2.75
    Evan Bayh: 3.50
    Tom Vilsack: 5.00
    Bill Richardson: 5.00
    Tom Daschle: 7.00
    Barack Obama: 8.00
    John Kerry: 9.00

  • At 7:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Looks like these guys have updated their selections, and included GOP potentials:

    Hillary Clinton 2.25
    Barack Obama 5.00
    John Edwards 5.00
    Bill Richardson 6.00
    Joseph R. Biden Jr 8.50
    Mark Warner 9.0
    Tom Daschle 9.0
    Wes Clark 10.0
    John Kerry 11.0
    Evan Bayh 13.00
    Tom Vilsack 13.0

    Rudolph Guiliani 2.87
    John McCain 4.50
    Bill First 8.50
    Jeb Bush 9.00
    Condoleezza Rice 9.00
    George Allen 9.00
    George Pataki 11.0
    Chuck Hagel 13.00
    Mitt Romney 13.00
    Tom Ridge 15.00
    Colin Powell 17.00
    Rick Santorum 19.00
    Newt Gingrich 21.00

    btw the 'price' is the amount in USD a $1 investment would return if your bet wins.

  • At 7:12 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Oh, and they've got the following prices for nomination to the Supreme Court:

    Michael J Luttig 6.00
    Samuel A Alito Jr 7.00
    John Roberts 7.00
    Emilio M Garza 7.00
    Alberto Gonzalez 8.00
    James Harvie Wilkinson III 8.50
    Michael McConnell 9.00
    Miguel Estrada 11.00
    Theodore B Olsen 13.00
    William Pryor 15.0
    Edith Hollan Jones 17.00
    Frank Hoover Easterbrook 21.00
    Paul Victor Niemeyer 29.00
    Lillian R BeVier 29.00
    Sen. Jon Cornyn 34.00
    Sen. Jon Kyle 34.00
    Richard Allen Posner 51.00
    John Claggett Danforth 67.00
    Pasco M Bowman II 81.00
    Amalya Lyle Kearse 101.00

    I've got $5 on Luttig and Gonzalez ;)

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