Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Tuesday, June 07, 2005
Supreme Court Odds
As I did in April with the papal election, sometimes I get the itch to put odds on a shorter-term race than the 2008 Presidential Nomination. In that spirit, I present The Jaker's opening line odds on the Supreme Court, on the assumption that CJ Rehnquist will step down about 3 weeks from now.
It is possible that there will be two nominations - one for the nomination to the court, and a second for chief justice. It is also very possible and perfectly legal for the new nominee to be nominated to be CJ as well, rather than a current justice being "elevated", which would necessitate only one confirmation hearing rather than two. Analysts are somewhat split about whether this will occur. As you'll see, I'm factoring both possibilities into my odds.
Here are my opening odds, to be updated whenever I feel the need.
Nomination to the Court: Ted Olson - former Solicitor General. 4:1 Larry Thompson - former Deputy Attorney General. 6:1 Emilio Miller Garza - 5th circuit judge. 7:1 Alberto Gonzales - U.S. Attorney General, former justice of Texas Supreme Court. 8:1 Michael McConnell - 10th circuit judge. 9:1 J. Michael Luttig - 4th circuit judge from Texas. 11:1 Samuel Alito Jr. - 3rd circuit judge. 13:1 Edith Jones - 5th circuit judge. 14:1 J. Harvie Wilkinson - 4th circuit judge. 16:1 John Cornyn - Sen TX. 20:1
Nomination as Chief Justice: Antonin Scalia. 3:1 Ted Olson. 4:1 Larry Thompson. 6:1 Clarence Thomas. 10:1 Emilio Miller Garza - 5th circuit judge. 10:1 Sandra Day O'Connor. 11:1 Alberto Gonzales. 12:1 Michael McConnell. 14:1 Anthony Kennedy. 25:1
Incidentally, Kennedy and O'Connor are possible short-term retirees as well, and liberal JP Stevens is 82 yrs old. After 11 years without a vacancy, the Supreme Court could be in for a dramatic overhaul in the next few years.