Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Tuesday, September 20, 2005
Updated Supreme Court Nomination Odds
Consuelo Callahan is an interesting new name in the mix. She's a Hispanic female, so clearly Bush would love to appoint her based on demographics. In 2003 she was supported unaminously by Democratic senators for her Appeals Court appointment, with Senator Leahy on record as saying "No controversy. No red flags. No basis for concern. No opposition." So it would be very hard to oppose her now, just 2 years later. The only knock against her I can see is that (after Stanford) she went to a law school I've never heard of: McGeorge School of Law (UoP).
Another interesting possibility, though she's getting little press, is Reena Raggi. She's a Reagan appointee who Bush elevated to the Court of Appeals. The primary thing in her favor at the moment is the high standard of intelligence set by Judge Roberts. Raggi's academic pedigree (Wellesley, Harvard Law) should stand up to that pressure. And again, Senate Democrats approved her fairly easily just a few years ago.
Here are the updated odds. Priscilla Owen is now the favorite, I believe. Rumor has it that Edith Clement has been overpromoting herself, which Bush hates. But Owen would face an INCREDIBLY hard nomination fight. Bush might try someone like Callahan if he thinks he just can't take anymore public criticism.
Priscilla Owen - 3:1 Edith Clement - 4:1 Edith Jones - 5:1 Janice Rogers Brown - 7:1 Consuelo Callahan - 8:1 Emilio Miller Garza - 9:1 Edward Prado - 9:1 Reena Raggi - 11:1 Alberto Gonzales - 12:1 Alice Batchelder - 13:1 Karen Williams - 14:1 Sonia Sotomayor - 15:1 Samuel Alito Jr. - 17:1 Michael McConnell - 20:1 J. Michael Luttig - 22:1 J. Harvie Wilkinson - 25:1 Larry Thompson - 25:1 Ted Olson - 30:1 John Cornyn - 40:1 William Pryor - 50:1