Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Thursday, October 27, 2005
Post Miers Supreme Court Nomination Odds
Following up on yesterday's surprisingly timely post, now that Miers has withdrawn, let's see what the landscape looks like for the new pick.
I think it's likely that Bush has learned a lesson and will go with a known quantity, so I'd be very surprised if he picks someone not on this list. If my friend Bryce is right, this was one of Bush's potential plans all along... now he can get Luttig on there. That may be true. Since he 'tried' to nominate a woman, he may now feel authorized to throw up a white man. Or potentially he'll get to nominate the first Hispanic SC justice.
One interesting wrinkle here is that there were rumors that people took themselves out of the running because the confirmation process is so tough. In fact, his nomination of Miers leads me to believe that it's likely that a number of the top women (Jones, Clement) asked not to be nominated. It's possible that even MORE people will take that path after what happened to Miers. So the big question is, who on this list will ask not to be considered? If it's 3 or 4 or 5 of them, things could get interesting.
Post Miers Odds: Emilio Garza 6:1. If he sticks to women and minorities, I think this is most likely. J. Michael Luttig 7:1. If Bush bows to the right wing, this is the guy. They love his deferral to executive power in Hamdi v. Rumsfeld. Edith Clement 15:2. Slightly more moderate than Jones. Was confirmed 99-0. Sam Alito 8:1. Dissented in Planned Parenthood v. Casey (right wing likes that). Edith Jones 8:1. Some abortion rulings that will satisfy the right wing. Michael McConnell 11:1. Similar to Luttig. Conservatives would like this. Sonia Sotomayor 12:1. A consensus pick. Princeton & Yale. Bush I & Clinton both nominated. Karen Williams 14:1. Too unknown? Reena Raggi 15:1. If he's looking for a woman with a resume, this would be a solid pick. J. Harvie Wilkinson 15:1. Confirmation would have some hair from both sides. Alice Batchelder 15:1. Only if some of the others have said no. Edward Prado 18:1. Potentially too moderate, but the Senate approved 97-0. If Bush picks him, then Bush doesn't want Roe v. Wade overturned. Consuelo Callahan 20:1. Too inexperienced. Only 2 years as a judge. Sen. John Cornyn 22:1. Perhaps more likely than this because would be confirmed easily. Priscilla Owen 24:1. Is GWB willing to go up against a filibuster? Janice Rogers Brown 25:1. Same as above. Larry Thompson 25:1. Too unknown? Sen. Jon Kyl 28:1. Long shot. Maureen Mahoney 30:1. Long shot. SC litigator. Never been a judge.
ps. Harry Reid is already out trying to capitalize on this. Saying that Bush is beholden to the right wing.
Update 3pm: I'm swapping my top two above. I now think Garza is the frontrunner. And I strongly think it will be either Garza, Luttig, Clement, Alito, or Jones.