The Jaker

Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.

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Friday, November 11, 2005
Friday Presidential Odds Update
Haven't done one of these in a couple of weeks.

- Edwards said this week that his vote in support of the Iraq war was "a mistake". He's clearly trying to get out ahead of this issue so as not to be accused of changing his mind closer to the election. Probably a wise strategy. It contrasts significantly with Hillary Clinton, who seems to have decided that she needs to be somewhat hawkish militarily since she's got that second X chromosome to contend with. I really like what Edwards is doing with his time since the campaign. He likely will be the '08 candidate with the most clear theme - that Democrats need to be the party that closes the income and class gaps in America and solves the poverty problem. Whether this resonates well with the party faithful will depend on the politics of the moment. Edwards benefits from a race about domestic issues. If the Iraq war is still the #1 issue in late 2007 / early 2008, people like Clinton, Warner, Gore, and Clark benefit, and the "fresh-faced" boys - Edwards, Bayh - tumble.
- Mark Warner's profile gets raised by his right-hand-man Kaine's victory in VA. And Warner's headed up to New Hampshire soon. I'm jumping him over Wes Clark and Evan Bayh into 3rd position. Warner goes to 7:1, Bayh to 8:1, Clark down to 10:1.
- I'm curious to get people's opinions... out of the top 5 - Clinton, Edwards, Warner, Bayh, Gore - who do you like?

- George Allen takes a slight hit with Virginia turning blue. Dropping him from 5:1 to 7:1.
- I'm bumping McCain up a bit from 9:2 to 4:1. McCain has bit out in front of the detainee torture issue lately, which is a good place to be for him. It enables him to appeal a little to the religious tenet of mercy and compassion.
posted by CB @ 10:42 AM  
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