Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Thursday, December 15, 2005
2008 Presidential Odds Changes
Lots of updates this week...
Democrats: - Hillary Clinton is having such a cakewalk in her Senate re-election campaign so far, that it looks like she'll be able to use the gobs of money she's collecting primarily for her Pres campaign. The more the stories continue to call her the frontrunner, the more people get comfortable with the idea of a female nominee. She obviously will hit serious bumps in the road between now and March 2008, especially because she's been in front for so long, but for now I've got say there's at least a 40% chance that she ends up the nominee, so I'm bumping her from 2:1 to 3:2. - Meanwhile, VA Gov Mark Warner continues to make headway, with a rapturous reception in South Carolina. There's not a whole lot of room for both John Edwards and Mark Warner - basically the same demographic there, similar levels of experience, etc. So for now I'm going to pull Warner and Edwards even at 5:1. - Increasing the average of those top 3 means I've got to decrease some others, so Evan Bayh drops from 8:1 to 9:1, Al Gore from 10:1 to 11:1, Wes Clark from 10:1 to 12:1, and the rest I'll hold steady.
Republicans: - Until yesterday, I was going to say that John McCain is in a difficult spot because of his difference with the President on torture. The incumbent President can really help someone in 2008 by leaning his way, and at one point it seemed like McCain and Bush had struck a deal. But then McCain's opposition with the President on torture became very public. Now Bush has relented and adopted McCain's position. A big win for the front-runner. I'll move McCain from 4:1 to 7:2. - I'm dropping Gingrich from 13:1 to 18:1 on rumors that he's mostly just acting like he's running to sell his books. He's still not very popular, despite having some good ideas on healthcare. - I'll increase Romney a little bit just because he's opted not to run for re-election in Mass, meaning he is running for President. But I don't think a mormom has much of a chance. Goes from 25:1 to 22:1. - The more I look at the top GOP candidates (McCain, Allen, Hagel, Giuliani, Frist, Pataki, Romney), the more I realize there isn't really a perfect candidate among them. Parts of the GOP won't be happy no matter who they nominate, whereas someone like Warner, Bayh, Obama or even Richardson could be really uniting for the Democrats. From this distant perch, I like the looks of things in 2008.