Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Thursday, May 25, 2006
2008 Presidential Odds Update
Democrats Hillary Clinton 5:3. I have to knock Hillary down a little, from 5:4 to 5:3, in light of some bad press lately. As people talk more about Gore, they talk more about why they think Hill can't win it. And there has been increased discussion of her marriage, even overtaking very good policy speeches she makes. She's still the frontrunner, but it won't be a cakewalk. Al Gore 4:1. Having now seen the movie, I'm slightly more convinced that Gore will run. He had creative control, and it's as much a Gore life story movie as a Global Warming movie. So I'm upping Gore from 7:1 back to 4:1, in second place, where he debuted in my rankings. John Edwards 5:1 Mark Warner 5:1 Evan Bayh 10:1. Bill Richardson 11:1 Russ Feingold 11:1. Continues to be the darling of the DailyKos straw poll. So I'll begrudgingly move him up to 11:1 from 12:1, but I don't think he can win it. Wes Clark 13:1. Fade continues. From 12:1 to 13:1. John Kerry 14:1. Barack Obama 14:1. This is juicy. Obama is hiring some nationally-known consultants. And some other pundit, can't remember where, said he and Gore are the only two that could shake up the race. Upping him from 15:1 to 14:1. More signals, and he'll shoot higher. Joe Biden 15:1 Tom Daschle 20:1. Tom Vilsack 24:1 Chris Dodd 25:1 Mike Bloomberg 33:1 Dick Gephardt 35:1 Bill Bradley 38:1 Brian Schweitzer 50:1 Bill Nelson 50:1 Howard Dean 65:1 Janet Napolitano 70:1
Republicans John McCain 2:1. Rudy Giuliani 7:1. George Allen 9:1. Newt Gingrich 12:1. Mitt Romney 15:1. George Pataki 16:1. Chuck Hagel 10:1. Condoleezza Rice 18:1. Bill Frist 18:1. Mike Huckabee 20:1. Sam Brownback 20:1 Jeb Bush 24:1. Colin Powell 35:1 Tom Ridge 35:1. Bill Owens 40:1 Haley Barbour 40:1 Mike Bloomberg 60:1. Dick Cheney 125:1 Christie Todd Whitman 150:1