Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Friday, May 19, 2006
Friday 2008 President Odds Update
Democrats Hillary Clinton 5:4 John Edwards 5:1. The main reason he's on top here, next to Hillary, is because these are the only two candidates that have a clear (though unspoken) strategy for 2008. Hillary's is to court the political middle. And JRE's is to court the middle and lower classes, and generate support in the labor community. This will definitely help him. Mark Warner 5:1 Al Gore 7:1. Gore's movie, "An Inconvenient Truth" debuts Weds May 24th. Go see it. As noted in an earlier post this week, Gore also said there's a chance he could "relapse" into politics again. As such, upping him from 9:1 to 7:1. Evan Bayh 10:1. Bill Richardson 11:1 Russ Feingold 12:1. Walking out on the same-sex amendment will endear him further to the grassroots left (Daily Kos people love Russ), but not likely to help in Iowa. Keep him steady. Wes Clark 12:1. John Kerry 14:1. Barack Obama 15:1. Joe Biden 15:1 Tom Daschle 20:1. This week he was pretty honest about his plans - gauging support for a run - and about the challenge that Hillary presents. Since he's in, I'll up him from 22:1 to 20:1. Tom Vilsack 24:1 Chris Dodd 25:1 Mike Bloomberg 33:1 Dick Gephardt 35:1 Bill Bradley 38:1 Brian Schweitzer 50:1 Bill Nelson 50:1 This is more realistic. Down from 35:1. Howard Dean 65:1 Janet Napolitano 70:1
Republicans John McCain 2:1. Rudy Giuliani 7:1. George Allen 9:1. Newt Gingrich 12:1. Said on MTP that he doesn't expect to run, but moderated somewhat from a previous stance. Mitt Romney 15:1. George Pataki 16:1. Chuck Hagel 10:1. So critical of Bush. I love it. But the base (if there is one left) probably won't. Moving him down to Pataki land... from 10:1 to 16:1. Condoleezza Rice 18:1. Bill Frist 18:1. Mike Huckabee 20:1. Huckabee is "seriously" preparing for a run. Also says he wouldn't mind being labeled a populist. You know what I like about Huckabee? He's not rich. He's pretty normal. The more I see super-rich presidents and senators, the more disgusted I am with the state of politics. That should not be a requirement to run for office. Sam Brownback 20:1 Jeb Bush 24:1. Colin Powell 35:1 Tom Ridge 35:1. Bill Owens 40:1 Haley Barbour 40:1 Mike Bloomberg 60:1. Dick Cheney 125:1 Christie Todd Whitman 150:1