The Jaker

Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.


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Friday, May 12, 2006
Friday 2008 Presidential Odds Update
I haven't done an odds update in awhile (my apologies). Starting today I'm going to change the format somewhat of the updates.

Previously I would just comment on the people I was changing, and then the update would be reflected in the column to the right (which is part of my blog template). The problem with that system was that I couldn't see the changes in my odds over time... specifically I couldn't go to a certain date and see what my odds were.

So starting today, in my Friday updates (which hopefully will go back to an every week or two schedule), I'll be publishing the full list in the body of the post, and make my comments directly next to the name. This should work better.

I'm also going to cull the list a little. Removing people about whom no one has yet speculated.

And now on to the changes...


Democrats
Hillary Clinton 5:4 . HC has courted Rupert Murdoch, among others to help her raise money. The question remains: can she satisfy the liberal wing of the party and avoid being attacked by everyone starting in December? Still, no one even comes close to her collection of advantages. Upping from 3:2 to 5:4.
John Edwards 5:1
Mark Warner 5:1
Al Gore 9:1. For my Gore in 2008 theory to be successful, his coming-soon global warming movie has to generate a new groundswell of love for Al this summer. This will be the key period to see if the country remembers the great parts (that he filtered out in 2000) and decides it wants to see him run again.
Evan Bayh 10:1. Rumor has it he's raising lots of money quietly. Swapping him with Billy R.
Bill Richardson 11:1
Russ Feingold 12:1. People keep saying that Feingold will be the Dean of 2008 (the good part), but I just don't buy it. Yes, he's more critical of Bush than most, which is great, but I don't see him putting it together like Dean did. I think he'll be more of a Wes Clark type.
Wes Clark 12:1. Speaking of which, he's been somewhat active lately. But I have yet to see any reason why he'll do any better this time around.
John Kerry 14:1. Winning favors in the party by donating money to lots of Congressional candidates. But not many people want to see him run again, according to polls.
Barack Obama 15:1. At a Loyola U speech, someone "requested" that he run in 2008. All he said was that he's flattered. Leaving it open to be the VP nominee? Perhaps. I'm going to knock him from 12:1 to 15:1.
Joe Biden 15:1
Tom Daschle 22:1
Tom Vilsack 24:1
Chris Dodd 25:1
Mike Bloomberg 33:1
Bill Nelson 35:1
Dick Gephardt 35:1
Bill Bradley 38:1
Brian Schweitzer 50:1
Howard Dean 65:1
Janet Napolitano 70:1


Republicans
John McCain 2:1. How will his speech at Falwell U go over? Probably no big fallout. But he continues to gain momentum, and now insiders are tapping him as the likely nominee. I'm upping Johnnie to 2:1 from 7:2.
Rudy Giuliani 7:1. Rudy is experiencing a little bit of a backlash... movies, blog posts, etc. Plus his friends say they don't know if he'll do it. I'll leave him at 7:1.
George Allen 9:1. Gotta knock him down on all this stuff about his love of the Confederate flag. Hell, he might even lose his re-election to the Senate. And the insider poll that a year ago had him the frontrunner among those in-the-know gives that label to McCain now. Taking him from 6:1 to 9:1.
Chuck Hagel 10:1. Could Hagel fill the void? He's railing against the party lately, which is potentially both good and bad. But if not him, then who else could challenge McCain? For now, Hagel stays at 10:1.
Newt Gingrich 12:1. I think Newt has a chance to be the trustworthy conservative that the right wing gets behind to battle McCain. So I'm upping from 20:1 to 12:1.
Mitt Romney 15:1. See Pataki. Upping to 15:1 from 22:1
George Pataki 16:1. Without doing anything himself, I think Pataki (and Romney) are helped by George Allen's foibles. Moving to 16:1 from 20:1.
Condoleezza Rice 18:1. If she was running, she'd be 3:1 with McCain, or maybe better. But she's not (we think).
Bill Frist 18:1. Immigration bill and tax cuts might help. But not much.
Mike Huckabee 20:1. I think Huckabee could be the dark horse of this race, at least to make a long run. I'm going to take him to 20:1 from 25:1.
Sam Brownback 20:1
Jeb Bush 24:1. Both 41 and 43 say he should run someday, but he says not in 2008. Leave him at 24 for now.
Colin Powell 35:1
Tom Ridge 35:1. Haven't heard a peep.
Bill Owens 40:1
Haley Barbour 40:1
Mike Bloomberg 60:1. More likely to run as a Dem or 3rd party, if he were going to at all. Would be very hard to win the GOP primary.
Dick Cheney 125:1
Christie Todd Whitman 150:1


posted by CB @ 12:16 PM  
8 Comments:
  • At 12:58 PM, Blogger Dan J said…

    Colin,

    You've got to move Huckabee back up to 25:1. The guy's lost too much weight to get the nomination. We like president's with weight problems they struggle with, not that they master. That was the genius of Clinton and his fast food proclivity. What did Roosevelt say? Something about American's liking things big? Well, that goes for president's too. Huckabee makes me feel bad about putting on 40 pounds since college.

     
  • At 1:02 PM, Blogger CB said…

    Guess you're going to have to run the marathon with Bec and I. 11/5 in NYC. See you there.

     
  • At 2:20 PM, Blogger Charlie said…

    This is great! Your reasoning sounds pretty logical to me.

     
  • At 4:06 PM, Blogger Marie said…

    You're right.....Bayh is raising lots of money and is very quietly positioning himself for 08. I listened to his speech last night at the Indiana Democrat JJ dinner. Harold Ford was the keynote speaker and unofficially offered to be Bayh's treasurer for his 08 campaign.

    Every candidate and politician in the room endorsed Bayh for 2008!

     
  • At 3:25 PM, Blogger Nathan said…

    Have you heard Wes Clark speak recently? Did you listen to the Democratic convention in 2004? He gave the Keynote Address the last night of the convention.

    (http://www.gwu.edu/%7Eaction/2004/demconv04/clark072904sp.html)
    Some talking heads said that if he had given this kind of speech when 1st campaigning, that he would be giving the last speech that night (i.e, the nomination acceptance speech).

    Yes, when he ran last time, his "stagecraft" wasn't as sharpened. Guess what? Neither was Eisenhower's, and I'd be willing to bet that if Eisenhower ran in today's media-saturated environment, his lack of stage-craft would've been noticed as well.

    Clark is openly and comically honest about his campaign last time. He calls it the campaign of four "No"s. No experience, No money, No Staff, and No strategy.

    What if, just by chance, all of his activity lately is to lay the groundwork, so that he has the network, so that he can have the $, so that he can hire a staff, and have a good strategy, that with his political experience, it can "be a groundswell, and become one giant march on Washington" (Clark, April 16, 2005)?

     
  • At 3:37 PM, Blogger CB said…

    Nathan,
    That's a fine opinion, but I don't think Clark has any advantage in the race over the myriad other candidates. His military background is appealling, but he has no natural constituency to hit up or money and support. Hillary has the big donors. Feingold has the bloggy left. Warner has the centrists. Richardson has Hispanics and Westerners. Bayh has the idealistic midwesterners. But who does Clark have besides veterans? And they're not an especially loose-walleted group. I just don't see him getting any further this year honestly. I may be wrong, but I don't think so.

     
  • At 8:51 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Ron Paul is missing.

     
  • At 4:10 AM, Blogger Andrew said…

    What about Ron Paul? Where is Ron Paul?

     
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