Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Wednesday, August 23, 2006
Iowa up for grabs for Republicans
Here's the thing about the Republican presidential nomination: it's totally wide open. At least it is if you think the Iowa caucuses matter.
A recent poll shows Giuliani out in front in Iowa, with 29% to John McCain's 17%. However, 2/3rds of respondents said they won't support someone with a different view on abortion, and 70% are pro-life. I'm going to guess that 5-10 of those 30 percentage points for Giuliani disappear when it becomes more widely discussed that he's pro-choice.
Then you go to McCain. But his problem is he skipped Iowa in 2000, and he's talked about how he thinks the caucuses are bullsh!t. So Iowans don't like him. They take their voting method pretty seriously, and many of them probably won't want to support someone who might want to take it away from them.
After those two, you've got quite a horse-race. And the caucuses are so much like a high-school popularity contest that it's hard to predict what deals will be cut and who will emerge. So who will step up to become the 3rd way in Iowa?
Not sure at the moment. But it's entirely possible that about 16 months from now, one of the people in that list, and not McCain or Giuliani, will be the frontrunner for the GOP nomination for President.