Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Thursday, September 06, 2007
Updated Presidential Odds!
Now that Fred Thompson's in the race (prediction: anyone remember what happened to Wes Clark?), it looks like the field is set for the moment (prediction: Gingrich will run, Gore will not, Bloomberg will not, Hagel will probably run as an independent), so it's time (overdue) to update the odds.
My current prediction: Clinton/Obama defeats Romney/Graham.
Here goes: Democrats Hillary Clinton. Up from 3:1 to 3:2. She's the odd's on favorite following a summer in which Obama didn't gain enough traction in the polls. Barack Obama. Down from 3:1 to 7:2. Despite amazing fundraising, he hasn't done what many experts were projecting, namely turn the corner in the opinion polls. Needs something substantial to happen. John Edwards. Up from 5:1 to 4:1. His lead in Iowa, plus lots of Union endorsements, plus the fact that a woman or black man have never been nominated, helps move him up a bit. Al Gore. Down from 8:1 to 10:1. I really think he's too happy to run. Bill Richardson. Down from 12:1 to 15:1. Unimpressive. Wes Clark. Removed from the list. Chris Dodd: Up from 22:1 to 20:1. He's a legitimate guy... too bad no one takes him seriously. Joe Biden: Steady at 25:1. Don't see how. Dennis Kucinich: Down from 30:1 to 50:1. I like the guy.
Republicans Mitt Romney. Up from 7:2 to 3:1. Still hard to predict how it will go for this guy. If Presbyterian or Methodist, he's the outright frontrunner. Rudy Giuliani. Up from 4:1 to 3:1. He hasn't crashed and burned, but boy would he be a terrible president. I think voters may realize it, but not yet. Fred Thompson. Steady at 6:1. I think he's a hack who's gotten this far because he hasn't been in the race. Now he's going to be exposed for the lightweight he is. This is an issues election more than a personality election. John McCain. Down from 5:1 to 6:1. Campaign isn't going anywhere, but he could resurrect it because people trust him. Mike Huckabee. Up from 15:1 to 10:1. I think he'll get some conservative endorsements that will help him. Newt Gingrich. Down from 11:1 to 13:1. I still think he'll enter, but probably too late. Ideal time is this month. Sam Brownback. Down from 14:1 to 15:1. Nowhere. Chuck Hagel. Down from 17:1 to 40:1. Not likely to enter the GOP race. Removing Condi Rice, Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, and Tommy Thompson.