Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Monday, October 20, 2008
Here's My Worry
If I decide to worry about the outcome of this election, here's how I do it:
There have been lots of stories about how Obama is making many more red states competitive. States like Virginia, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana - all of which John Kerry probably never stepped foot in. That's great. Obama certainly has more ways he can combine states to get to 270 electoral college votes.
But what is not happening, is he is not pulling away dramatically in the traditional swing states - Ohio, Florida, Colorado are all still within 5-7 pts in current polling.
So Obama hasn't really MOVED the swing states (ie. solidified the existing swing states, and shifted the battle to a new set), but rather has EXPANDED the group of swing states.
Which bring me to my worry. Obama is susceptible to two things: 1) Bad polling, in which a 5 pt lead in all the new swing states somehow becomes a 1-2 pt win for McCain; or 2) A dramatic event in the next 2 weeks, that is sufficient to tip 5-10% of the electorate towards McCain in the closing days.
I don't think it will happen, but I worry nevertheless.