Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Friday, April 15, 2005
Friday Prez Odds Update
Back to a regular schedule for the Friday Prez Odds Updates. Sorry for the last few weeks. A fair amount of updates this week.
Dems: - Could a surprising winner of the Governor's mansion in Montana actually claim the Democratic nomination for President? It's a longshot, but Brian Schweitzer enters the odds this week at 28:1, alongside my other favorite Red-state dark horse Phil Bredesen (Gov-TN). - I think I've been underestimating Evan Bayh. He's quiet at the moment, but I think he'll be 2008's John Edwards... the young good-looking candidate everyone likes, but no one's sure if they trust him to run the military. I'm moving him from 10:1 to 7:1. - Feingold's second divorce, announced this week, reduces his stock significantly. Dropping him from 13:2 to 13:1. - I'm moving John Edwards down slightly to 5:1 from 4:1. His poverty crusade at UNC hasn't gotten him much press so far. - I'm moving Bill Bradley up a bit, as he seems to have re-entered the political discussion somewhat, with a recent editorial in the NYTimes and news that he's starting a political radio show on XM-satellite radio. I'm a huge fan, so he's going from 25:1 to 16:1.
Repubs: - Frist stays in the lead as he continues to campaign in NH, but he's taking a risk this week by pushing to eliminate the judicial filibuster. If it fails, or the Dems bring the Senate to a halt, this could hurt the Dr.'s reputation. - I still think Hagel will be everyone's second favorite if he decides to run, and thus could sneak into the nomination when people pull away from controversial figures like Giuliani, Frist and McCain. - I'm also knocking down Schwarzenegger, because the amendment hasn't really gotten any momentum. Taking him down from 25:1 to 40:1.