Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Friday, July 21, 2006
Presidential Odds Update
Democrats Hillary Clinton 5:3. Mark Warner 5:1. I'm swapping Mark Warner with Al Gore today, moving Warner into second, for what I think is the first time. One of the reasons is this Slate article, which chronicles the success he's having in selling himself in Iowa. John Edwards 5:1. A WaPo article recently. The buzz remains. Al Gore 11:2. I recently upped Gore from 7:1 to 4:1, and today I'm taking him back half that distance, to 11:2. The buzz from the movie was great, but it hasn't translated into the full-scale "remember when Al beat Bush?" hype that I thought we might see. It hasn't totally fizzled either. It's somewhere in the middle. Hence the swap with Warner. Russ Feingold 10:1 Evan Bayh 10:1. Bayh is starting to attempt to break out of the middle of the pack, with speeches in Iowa and DC outlining the thrust of his candidacy (he'll be speaking for the middle class, in stark contrast with John Edwards's focus on the lower class. Bill Richardson 11:1 Wes Clark 13:1 John Kerry 14:1 Barack Obama 14:1 Joe Biden 15:1 Tom Daschle 20:1. Possibly going to see him speak in NYC next week. I'll report back thereafter. Tom Vilsack 24:1 Chris Dodd 25:1 Mike Bloomberg 33:1 Dick Gephardt 35:1 Bill Bradley 38:1 Brian Schweitzer 50:1 Bill Nelson 50:1 Howard Dean 75:1 Janet Napolitano 100:1
Republicans John McCain 2:1 Rudy Giuliani 5:1. I'm improving his odds from 7:1 to 5:1, in light of the poll I discussed a couple days ago. I think it's significant, though I still think Giuliani's too moderate for today's GOP. George Allen 9:1 Newt Gingrich 10:1. I know not many agree, but I think there's a chance for Gingrich to sneak in the back door and win this nomination. He can definitely bring back old-conservative credibility to those Republicans shocked by where Bush has taken the party. All three above him have problems. So does Gingrich, obviously, but I think there's maybe a 10% chance it works out for him. So I'm improving his odds from 12:1 to 10:1. Mitt Romney 15:1 George Pataki 16:1 Chuck Hagel 17:1. You have to come down this far in the list to find someone without a real problem characteristic in the race. Is Chuck going to run? Condoleezza Rice 18:1 Bill Frist 18:1. His position on stem cells (for them, against Bush) is the first positive thing towards his Presidential run in months. But it's not moving him up any in my odds. Mike Huckabee 20:1 Sam Brownback 20:1 Jeb Bush 24:1 Colin Powell 35:1 Tom Ridge 35:1 Bill Owens 40:1 Haley Barbour 40:1 Mike Bloomberg 60:1 Dick Cheney 125:1 Christie Todd Whitman 150:1