The Jaker

Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.

Support The Jaker

Tuesday, November 07, 2006
Restating my Picks
So I'm not changing my (semi-conservative) picks from last week:

House of Reps:
Dems pick up 25 seats (15 needed for majority). Final result: 226-205.

Dems pick up 5 seats (6 needed for majority). Final result: 50-50 (with Lieberman and Sanders counted for the Dems). Republicans would retain control with the Cheney tie-breaker, but committee chairmanships would probably have to be split.

I think we get that result by having the Dems pick up Pennsylvania, Ohio, Rhode Island, Montana, and Missouri. I think Allen pulls it out in Virginia (though I hope not) and Corker beats Ford in Tennessee.

By the way, I'm hoping that my picks are way too pessimistic, and that the Dems actually pick up 35-40 seats in the House and 6-7 Senate seats (maybe even Arizona or Nevada will come into play?).

But I'm not getting my hopes up. GOP GOTV is impressive, and I think there are a fair amount of people that might tell pollsters they hate Bush and the Republicans, but secretly still vote for them when all alone in the booth. (The contrary is I think there's a chance polls are under-estimating Democratic turnout)

So we'll see...
posted by CB @ 11:36 AM  
Post a Comment
<< Home

Recent Posts
Contact Me
Email me
Template by

Free Blogger Templates