The Jaker

Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.

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Monday, December 31, 2007
4 days to caucus night
Things are getting crazy out there. Not that I'm out there. I'm here.

The outcome of the Iowa caucuses is really unpredictable right now. Which is why I'll try to predict it. Here is my Monday guess for how the caucuses will turn out. I may change this once or twice or as many times as I like (nice to be a blogger) between now and Thursday.

Obama 30
Edwards 28
Clinton 26
Biden 12
Richardson 4

Romney 32
Huckabee 20
McCain 20
Thompson 11
Paul 9
Giuliani 8

The big question for me on the Republican side is: in light of the Huckabee collapse, which I think we are in the midst of, where does his support go back to? I assert that it will fragment between Romney, McCain, and Thompson (almost none to Rudy). The key for McCain is to try to lock up as much of the Huckabee, anti-mormon, religious conservative vote as possible.
posted by CB @ 12:45 PM  
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