Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Monday, December 17, 2007
Presidential Odds Update
So in light of the Huckabee boom (which I called a year and a half ago), I'm pulling a non-common-sense change in the Presidential Odds on the Republican side.
Here's how it goes: Caucus Night in Iowa. It's cold, and you've got to sit for 3 hours in a drafty gymnasium. People stand up and give their pitches for candidates, and then the argument ensues. This is where I see Huckabee unraveling. Because he's less vetted, people won't have appropriate comebacks when Huckabee opponents raise all of his negatives - lack of foreign policy, evangelical musings like saying he's getting direction from God (which doesn't fly much anymore after Bush), etc. etc. Same goes more or less for Romney and Giuliani. There are lots of great arguments to be made against them (for Romney: try mormonism being founded by a con man) (for Giuliani: try terrible relationship with his son and two former wives).
So the top three candidates are looking weak. Where to turn? Not Fred Thompson. But John McCain. People know him. People trust him. Yeah, he's old and a bit wild, and he's dissed Iowa a few times, but he's tough and he's honest, and when it comes down to it you have to pick a President.
So my guess right now is that John McCain has a surprisingly good showing in Iowa. Probably won't win, but I wouldn't be shocked by a close second. That propels him to win New Hampshire, and then off we go.
Reserve the right to change my mind in the next few weeks.
Romney: steady at 3:1 McCain: up from 6:1 to 4:1 Huckabee: up from 5:1 to 9:2 Giuliani: down from 3:1 to 5:1 Paul: up from 18:1 to 12:1 (that money is coming from somewhere) Thompson: down from 11:1 to 13:1
By the way, on the Democratic side, I think John Edwards could be the beneficiary of the same effect, to a lesser degree. (And maybe Joe Biden)
Obama: up from 3:1 to 5:2 Clinton: down from 2:1 to 3:1 (Des Moines Register helps, but not sure) Edwards: up from 5:1 to 4:1 Richardson: steady at 13:1 Biden: up from 35:1 to 15:1 Dodd: down from 25:1 to 30:1 Gore: down from 17:1 to 50:1 Kucinich: steady at 100:1