The Jaker

Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.

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Tuesday, October 26, 2004
Don't watch Gallup LVs
Their likely voter method has been discredited - as they assume a much larger percentage of registered Republicans will vote than will registered Dems. Their likely voter model currently has Bush +5 (down from Bush +8). Also somewhat noteable is that Gallup is a big GOP donor.

A better proxy, if you must watch Gallup, are the registered voter numbers, which is currently Bush +1 (down from Bush +4).

See discussion here

posted by CB @ 10:37 AM  
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