The Jaker

Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.

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Thursday, June 23, 2005
Updated Supreme Court Nomination Odds

Changes are in green. Rehnquist's resignation, should he give it, should come next week. But there have been some reports that the CJ is doing better lately. So who knows.

- Moving Samuel Alito (aka Scalito) and J. Michael Luttig up into the frontrunner spots. Both are staunch, hard-line conservatives, and White House insiders seem to be suggesting that Bush wants to nominate such a person.
- Wilkinson and Roberts are the other two most frequently mentioned, so they move up.
- Despite no mention in that article, I can't ignore Bush's stated desire to nominate the first Hispanic justice, so Garza, Prado, and Gonzales are still definite possibilities.
- I've also changed the odds for the Chief Justice nomination. I'm currently projecting that the new justice will be nominated to the CJ job.

Nomination to the Court:
Samuel Alito Jr. - 3rd circuit judge. 7:1
J. Michael Luttig - 4th circuit judge from Texas.
J. Harvie Wilkinson - 4th circuit judge. 8:1
Emilio Miller Garza - 5th circuit judge. 8:1
Edward Prado - 5th circuit judge. 8:1
John Roberts - DC Court of Appeals. 9:1
Alberto Gonzales - U.S. Attorney General, former justice of Texas Supreme Court. 9:1
Ted Olson - former Solicitor General. 9:1
Larry Thompson - former Deputy Attorney General. 9:1
Michael McConnell - 10th circuit judge. 11:1
Edith Jones - 5th circuit judge. 14:1
William Pryor. 18:1
John Cornyn - Sen TX. 20:1

Nomination as Chief Justice:
[the new justice] 2:1
Antonin Scalia 5:1
Clarence Thomas 7:1
Sandra Day O'Connor 25:1

posted by CB @ 9:59 AM  
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