Changes are in green. Rehnquist's resignation, should he give it, should come next week. But there have been some reports that the CJ is doing better lately. So who knows. - Moving Samuel Alito (aka Scalito) and J. Michael Luttig up into the frontrunner spots. Both are staunch, hard-line conservatives, and White House insiders seem to be suggesting that Bush wants to nominate such a person.
- Wilkinson and Roberts are the other two most frequently mentioned, so they move up.
- Despite no mention in that article, I can't ignore Bush's stated desire to nominate the first Hispanic justice, so Garza, Prado, and Gonzales are still definite possibilities.
- I've also changed the odds for the Chief Justice nomination. I'm currently projecting that the new justice will be nominated to the CJ job.
Nomination to the Court:
Samuel Alito Jr. - 3rd circuit judge. 7:1
J. Michael Luttig - 4th circuit judge from Texas. 7:1
J. Harvie Wilkinson - 4th circuit judge. 8:1
Emilio Miller Garza - 5th circuit judge. 8:1
Edward Prado - 5th circuit judge. 8:1
John Roberts - DC Court of Appeals. 9:1
Alberto Gonzales - U.S. Attorney General, former justice of Texas Supreme Court. 9:1
Ted Olson - former Solicitor General. 9:1
Larry Thompson - former Deputy Attorney General. 9:1
Michael McConnell - 10th circuit judge. 11:1
Edith Jones - 5th circuit judge. 14:1
William Pryor. 18:1
John Cornyn - Sen TX. 20:1 Nomination as Chief Justice:
[the new justice] 2:1
Antonin Scalia 5:1
Clarence Thomas 7:1
Sandra Day O'Connor 25:1
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