The Jaker

Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.


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Friday, September 23, 2005
Friday Presidential Odds Update
GOP:
- Pataki is playing his cards right in Iowa. Moving him up slightly to17-1, which puts him 8th currently.
- Perhaps Giuliani's pro-choice stance and 3 marriages won't hurt him in the primary as much as some think (bottom of page). I'm going to leapfrog him over Bill Frist into 4th.
- Speaking of Bill Frist, I'm not changing his odds today, but this thing with his stock sale could blow up, absolutely spoiling his chances at the Presidency. Stay tuned for more on that next week, after the story fleshes out a little more.
- A newcomer to the list is Miss governor Haley Barbour. He's getting some good press in the wake of Katrina. Barbour enters the rankings at 19:1, right behind Pataki.


Dems:
- Tom Daschle (remember him) is making some noise again. He's speaking in Iowa, and he's started a new PAC. I've had him lingering in the odds at 40:1, which I'm upping to 25:1 today, but if he becomes a committed character he'll keep rising, because he has the kind of crossover appeal that could go places in the primary under the right circumstances.
- This NYPost article talks about the possibility of Gore challenging Hillary from the left in 2008. From the beginning, I've thought that Gore has a great chance to win if he gets in. But his most recent statements on the matter ("I'm a recovering politician"), make it seem unlikely. I'm keeping Gore at 17:1.
posted by CB @ 1:25 PM  
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