Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Thursday, November 09, 2006
Tuesday's Impact on 2008
I also need to factor Tuesday into my nomination odds. The major change here will be George Allen. He started on this list with much better odds, and I gradually dropped him as the campaign went on and he kept shooting himself in the foot. He went into Tuesday at 16:1, but in light of his loss, I think he now becomes a 30:1 shot at best, with that likely being too optimistic. The only reason I'll hold him at 30 for now is that the right-wing base of the party loves him, and would love to help him recover. But it's more likely that I'll continue to drop him over the next year, depending on what he finds himself doing.
I'm also going to up Mitt Romney from 9:1 to 8:1. Yes, a Dem was elected to replace him as Mass governor, but I think he benefits significantly from Allen's demise. They were similar candidates.
I'll knock Pataki from 16:1 to 20:1. He couldn't avoid a Republican melt-down in New York.