Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Monday, November 26, 2007
Iowa's getting interesting
I'm watching intently Mike Huckabee's rise in Iowa. Back in May '06 I said: "I think Huckabee could be the dark horse of this race, at least to make a long run." It took awhile, but he's now emerging as the guy who could unite the far-right, which is interesting, since he's an affable, marathon-running, weight-losing guy (who also happens to be a fairly ultra-conservative preacher who calls abortion a "holocaust").
And I'm not sure I believe the one poll that has Obama in front in Iowa (within the margin of error), but it's clear that Hillary's not going to coast through the first two states. Obama's chances are looking better than ever.
I'm back on his bandwagon since early October or so, after spending July through September thinking that Hillary was probably the right choice, because she's so damn smart. I now believe that her talents aren't suited to the presidency... she should be Chief of Staff, or, better yet, Senate Majority Leader, but the President is basically a vessel for our hopes and dreams, and needs to be a communicator that can reflect the national mood... Barack beats her on these metrics.
Republicans: I'm flip-flopping Thompson and Huckabee. Huckabee's on the up, Thompson's going down fast.
I still think this race is a toss-up between Romney and Giuliani, leaning slightly to Romney.
Democrats: I'll tip Richardson slightly ahead of Gore (if he's not joining this month, he's never), but this is still Hillary's to lose. She could do just that, but it will take a Dean-like meltdown in Iowa.
A lot of the Iraq war related conversations I've been having with people lately have been in regards to the long-term effects on society, such as the large amount of veterans (many of them physically and psychologically wounded) we will have to help for decades to come. We've seen how tough a time many Vietnam vets had re-establishing a regular life. It's going to be in some ways a harder challenge for Iraq vets, many of whom survive with injuries that in past wars they would have died from.
Many of the "vets" are going to be in their 20s, reeling from a pyschologically difficult war that many of us never supported - that is tough on the soldiers. We need to help them establish their lives, after taking them out of the regular career track in arguably their most important and formative career-development years. Send them to college, help them find jobs... it's all going to be important.
Where is President Bush on this? He thinks it's more supportive to troops to not criticize the war than to give them aid at having productive lives? Give me a break.