Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Friday, January 26, 2007
Independent Candidates in 2008?
For awhile now I've had a fairly strong and growing belief that a 3rd party candidate will make a big difference in the Presidential Race of 2008. Not Ralph Nader scale... something closer to Ross Perot scale (10-20% of the popular vote).
And I think it's mostly because the core of the Republican Party seems to be substantially farther to the right than the mainstream public. Much farther right of center than the Democratic Party is left of center.
So I think it's likely that the 3rd party candidate will be a Republican in name who's frustrated with how far right his party is.
I'm thinking of starting a new category in my odds on the right. In advance of doing that, here's who I view as most likely at the moment:
Rudy Giuliani Chuck Hagel Michael Bloomberg John McCain Joe Lieberman
One main reason I think this is possible: http://www.unity08.com/. One of the biggest challenges for 3rd party candidates is ballot access. This group aims to get ballot access in all 50 states before they have a nominee, and then choose who they will give their ballot line to after the Dems and GOP have chosen their nominees.