The Jaker

Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.

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Thursday, February 01, 2007

Much overdue odds update

Democrats
Hillary Clinton 3:1
Barack Obama 3:1
John Edwards 5:1. Moving him up slightly, from 6 to 5, since he polls well in Iowa. Personally, I don't favor JE this time around, but he'll stick around for awhile.
Al Gore 7:1
Bill Richardson 9:1
John Kerry 14:1
Wes Clark 14:1
Joe Biden 18:1. Dropping him from 16 to 18 because of his Obama comment.
Tom Vilsack 18:1
Chris Dodd 20:1

Also, as of today I'm removing the following candidates, who haven't made any move toward running since I added them a couple years ago. Sayonara Bill, Brian, Bill, Howard, and Janet... see you in 2012 (or hopefully 2016).
Bill Bradley 48:1
Brian Schweitzer 60:1
Bill Nelson 65:1
Howard Dean 85:1
Janet Napolitano 100:1

Republicans
John McCain 4:1. Dropping from 3 to 4. See comment below.
Mitt Romney 5:1. Moving Romney up from 6 to 5. A lot of the smart, well-connected NYC and DC GOP'ers I know are joining Romney's camp. They'll try to position him as the best balance of conservative values, stability, and electability.
Rudy Giuliani 8:1. I'm still not a believer.
Newt Gingrich 11:1
Sam Brownback 14:1. Upping from 17 to 14. Announced.
Mike Huckabee 14:1. Upping from 20 to 14. Announced.
Chuck Hagel 17:1
Condoleezza Rice 25:1. Dropping to 25. She's not going to run.
Tommy Thompson 35:1. Dropping from 30 to 35.
George Pataki 40:1. Lowering from 20 to 40. Probably not running.
Jeb Bush 50:1. Dropping from 24 to 50. Probably not running
Duncan Hunter 100:1

I'm removing the following:
Mark Sanford 30:1
George Allen 30:1
Colin Powell 35:1
Tom Ridge 35:1
Frank Keating 36:1
Bill Owens 40:1
Haley Barbour 40:1
Dick Cheney 125:1
Christie Todd Whitman 150:1

posted by CB @ 11:42 AM

2 Comments:

At 12:22 AM, dhs said…

I like checking odd your odds. why did you leave Kerry in; he announced he's out. also I'm hearing Gore rumblings. He should be less than 7-1.!
At 9:34 AM, CB said…

thanks... i totally forgot to remove kerry.

as for gore, the rumblings are there, but i think my 7 is about right. if he announced today he was running, i think he'd be a 3 or a 4, so that uncertainty is the extra 3 or 4.