Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Thursday, February 01, 2007
Much overdue odds update
Democrats Hillary Clinton 3:1 Barack Obama 3:1 John Edwards 5:1. Moving him up slightly, from 6 to 5, since he polls well in Iowa. Personally, I don't favor JE this time around, but he'll stick around for awhile. Al Gore 7:1 Bill Richardson 9:1 John Kerry 14:1 Wes Clark 14:1 Joe Biden 18:1. Dropping him from 16 to 18 because of his Obama comment. Tom Vilsack 18:1 Chris Dodd 20:1
Also, as of today I'm removing the following candidates, who haven't made any move toward running since I added them a couple years ago. Sayonara Bill, Brian, Bill, Howard, and Janet... see you in 2012 (or hopefully 2016). Bill Bradley 48:1 Brian Schweitzer 60:1 Bill Nelson 65:1 Howard Dean 85:1 Janet Napolitano 100:1
Republicans John McCain 4:1. Dropping from 3 to 4. See comment below. Mitt Romney 5:1. Moving Romney up from 6 to 5. A lot of the smart, well-connected NYC and DC GOP'ers I know are joining Romney's camp. They'll try to position him as the best balance of conservative values, stability, and electability. Rudy Giuliani 8:1. I'm still not a believer. Newt Gingrich 11:1 Sam Brownback 14:1. Upping from 17 to 14. Announced. Mike Huckabee 14:1. Upping from 20 to 14. Announced. Chuck Hagel 17:1 Condoleezza Rice 25:1. Dropping to 25. She's not going to run. Tommy Thompson 35:1. Dropping from 30 to 35. George Pataki 40:1. Lowering from 20 to 40. Probably not running. Jeb Bush 50:1. Dropping from 24 to 50. Probably not running Duncan Hunter 100:1
I'm removing the following: Mark Sanford 30:1 George Allen 30:1 Colin Powell 35:1 Tom Ridge 35:1 Frank Keating 36:1 Bill Owens 40:1 Haley Barbour 40:1 Dick Cheney 125:1 Christie Todd Whitman 150:1