Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Tuesday, November 14, 2006
Giuliani can't win the Republican nomination
Today's news on the 2008 Presidential front is that Rudy Giuliani is forming an exploratory committee, meaning it's quite likely he's going to run. I'm keeping him at 5:1, because I was taking that fact as practically a given, considering his recent public statements.
Here in Feb '05 I note that a visit to South Carolina makes me think he's running. And here in July '06 I moved Rudy up to 2nd spot at 5:1 (where he is now), because his informal 2008 poll results continued to look good.
But I'll repeat what I said in July - I think Giuliani is too moderate for today's GOP - and that the GOP race for President is really wide open for someone like Romney, Gingrich, or Hagel to step into the void. Josh Marshall very aptly makes the case against Giuliani:
do we really have to pretend that Rudy Giuliani has more than a snowball's chance in hell of getting the Republican presidential nomination? Or can we all just stipulate that a multiple adulterer, who supports gay civil rights and choice, has deep and on-going ties to mobbed-up and now-disgraced Police boss Bernie Kerik, has a largely unscrutinized (outside of New York) resume, and had the bright idea of locating the NYC disaster center in the already-once-bombed World Trade Center probably will have some rough sledding in Republican primaries?
I think I'll be improving Romney, Gingrich, and Hagel's odds at the end of this week.