Mostly rational politics, with occasional rants about how a few crazy Republicans are ruining the country.
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Friday, January 26, 2007
Independent Candidates in 2008?
For awhile now I've had a fairly strong and growing belief that a 3rd party candidate will make a big difference in the Presidential Race of 2008. Not Ralph Nader scale... something closer to Ross Perot scale (10-20% of the popular vote).
And I think it's mostly because the core of the Republican Party seems to be substantially farther to the right than the mainstream public. Much farther right of center than the Democratic Party is left of center.
So I think it's likely that the 3rd party candidate will be a Republican in name who's frustrated with how far right his party is.
I'm thinking of starting a new category in my odds on the right. In advance of doing that, here's who I view as most likely at the moment:
Rudy Giuliani Chuck Hagel Michael Bloomberg John McCain Joe Lieberman
One main reason I think this is possible: http://www.unity08.com/. One of the biggest challenges for 3rd party candidates is ballot access. This group aims to get ballot access in all 50 states before they have a nominee, and then choose who they will give their ballot line to after the Dems and GOP have chosen their nominees.
I don't choose the ads that run on my site. I don't have any influence whatsoever. Google administers them. So a McCain (or Hillary or anyone for that matter) ad that runs on The Jaker should not be seen as an indication of any kind of support.
Black Democrats prefer Clinton 3 to 1 over Obama, and four out of five of black Democrats view her favorably, much higher than the 54 percent who have a favorable view of Obama, according to combined findings from two Washington Post-ABC polls taken in December and January.
Is this just a familiarity thing, or will this stand up?
I'm in DC for business, and earlier this evening I walked past Ken Mehlman, who was waiting outside my hotel (there's some kind of RNC conference going on here, and I guess KM is passing the torch to Mel Martinez). He was all alone, so I could have struck up a convo, but I couldn't immediately think of a sensible topic for us that would result in me being honest without resorting to insulting... because I think Mehlman specifically epitomizes the Republican "I'm right and you're wrong and you're just not enlightened enough to know it" attitude that I loathe. Any time I saw him talking on TV I wound up yelling at the screen.
I should have asked who he likes for '08 on the GOP side.
I've said it a number of times before, and today I make do. Barack Obama is in the race, so I'm making him co-favorite with Hillary Clinton. A bunch of people might think this is too much buying into the early-race hype. That's a legitimate argument. But I actually think Obama is the real deal. An editor of the Harvard Law Review, with a demonstrated ability to frame issues in new ways and drive public consensus - one of the largest challenges of slow-moving democracies - is a very plausible Presidential candidate.
So today Obama jumps up to 3:1, and I drop Hillary down to 3:1 to match. Next up - an announcement by Bill Richardson will move him up my odds, probably ahead of Al Gore. To me, those are the three contenders (I'm not an Edwards fan this time around) - Clinton, Obama, Richardson.
SmartMoney.com has an article criticizing Democracy Bonds, a recurring-donation program of the DNC (to which I am a subscriber, or "bondholder"). Jonathan Hoenig calls this program decieving, because the "bond" doesn't actually return your principal at the end of some period like a normal bond investment.
To that I say: has anyone actually be decieved into thinking that this is an investment, not a donation? I would argue no, and challenge Hoenig to produce such a person. His article doesn't mention anyone. I would imagine (or hope) he tried to find one but couldn't.
I think Democracy Bonds is a great program. It's hard to stomach making a $100 donation all at once, but I'm absolutely willing to give them $10 out of my salary every month to help them build the infrastructure to keep Democrats in government. And I encourage everyone else to do so too.
Personal Note: posting will remain intermittent. I'm quite busy.